Saturday, May 9 — This was the week the redistricting fight stopped being theoretical

The week the fight became real

On Wednesday, the Alabama Legislature passed HB1 and SB1 through both chambers despite a Montgomery thunderstorm that flooded the State House and forced the building to evacuate mid-debate. The House moved HB1 75–29 along party lines after roughly four hours of Democratic opposition. The Senate gaveled SB1 through with the fire alarm sounding, then joined the evacuation.

On Friday, Governor Ivey signed both bills into law. The contingency framework is now in place: if the federal courts lift the existing injunction, the Governor is authorized to call replacement primary elections in the four affected congressional districts. The May 19 results in those districts would be voided. There is no runoff in the special primary — the top vote-getter in each race becomes the nominee.

The certification deadline for any court ruling that would activate this mechanism is August 26. After that date, the trigger lapses for this cycle.

Marshall takes it to the Supreme Court

Friday afternoon, Attorney General Steve Marshall filed a 25-page emergency application asking the U.S. Supreme Court to clear Alabama to use its 2023 Legislature-drawn congressional map for the May 19 primary. Solicitor General A. Barrett Bowdre wrote that without Supreme Court action, Alabama would have to "hold elections under a map that was erroneously ordered at best and unconstitutional at worst."

The application went directly to Justice Clarence Thomas, who handles emergency matters from Alabama. Thomas ordered the challengers to file their response by Monday at 5 p.m. EDT. Alabama has asked for a ruling by Thursday, May 14 — five days before primary day.

Friday evening, the lower three-judge federal panel that originally drew the current map refused to lift its own injunction, saying only the Supreme Court has the authority to intervene this close to an active election. The fight is now entirely with the Justices.

What this means for District 2: under the Legislature's 2023 map, District 2 is a Republican district. Under the court-imposed 2024 map currently in effect, the Black Voting Age Population was driven to roughly 49 percent and the partisan profile was redrawn Democratic to produce the seat Shomari Figures now holds. The 2023 map restores District 2 to roughly 40 percent Black Voting Age Population and a R+17 partisan profile. That is the map Alabama is asking the Supreme Court to allow.

Figures said the quiet part out loud Thursday

Rep. Shomari Figures held a town hall in Montgomery Thursday evening with Senate Minority Leader Bobby Singleton, House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels, State Sen. Kirk Hatcher, and civil-rights activist Sheyann Webb-Christburg. About 100 people attended.

Figures' message to the room, captured by the Alabama Reflector and the Associated Press:

"I ran into a gentleman last night, and he said, 'Hey man, I hear your job is on the line.' And I told him, 'No, Shomari Figures is going to be OK. Your voice is on the line.'"

That is the incumbent telling his base that he is fine no matter what happens. He is running this race like a man who already knows where his next position is. The work to take District 2 back is the work of giving the voters of this district a representative who is running to do the job, not running to keep it.

The Tuskegee dialysis center closes in eight days

The Fresenius Kidney Care dialysis center in Tuskegee closes Sunday, May 17. Approximately 50 patients will need to find new care at facilities in Tallassee, Auburn, or Union Springs. Mayor Chris Lee has documented the impact. Fresenius has committed to ensuring care plans and transportation for those who already qualify.

The Wilcox County dialysis center, on the same operator's timeline, closed March 20. Two facility closures, two months apart, both in District 2. Press releases from Washington did not keep either facility open. The work of replacing political theater with delivered results in this district has not started yet. It starts on November 3.

Iran, fuel, and the kitchen table

Brent crude closed Friday at $101.73 per barrel, up 1.66 percent on the day after U.S. Central Command reported defensive strikes against Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz, where three U.S. guided-missile destroyers had transited and come under fire. The price has traded in a $100 to $104 corridor on alternating Hormuz exchange and diplomatic-progress headlines all week.

Tehran's response to the U.S. proposal is being delivered through Pakistani intermediaries. The AAA national average gas price stood at $4.53 per gallon as of yesterday. The household budget question through this weekend is whether the framework holds. Trump-led peace through strength is the framework that gets us to a stable price at the pump. The alternative is the failed posture Democrats have run on energy for a generation.

What District 2 voters can do this week

Watch the Justice Thomas docket Monday after 5 p.m. EDT. The challengers' response will be public. The shape of any SCOTUS ruling between then and Thursday determines whether this district could be redrawn before November.

Talk to neighbors about the May 19 primary. The U.S. Senate and PSC primaries are on the ballot in every District 2 county. Down-ballot Republicans up and down the state. Turnout in the primary is the muscle memory for turnout in November.

Show up for the Tuskegee dialysis story. Local press, local pastors, local elected officials. The closure on May 17 is the result of a federal failure. The narrative of who delivered and who didn't is being written this month.

Stay in the work. The redistricting question is not the campaign. The campaign is November 3. The work is the same regardless of which map the courts allow.

Key dates

Monday, May 11, 5:00 PM EDT — Challengers' response due to Justice Thomas on Alabama congressional map application.

Thursday, May 14 — Alabama-requested deadline for SCOTUS ruling.

Sunday, May 17 — Fresenius Kidney Care Tuskegee dialysis center scheduled closure. T-8 from today.

Tuesday, May 19 — Alabama statewide primary election.

Wednesday, August 26 — Last possible certification date for any special-primary trigger this cycle.

Tuesday, November 3 — General Election. The work starts here, ends here, and resumes here.