Monday, June 1, 2026

Today In One Line

The map that will govern AL-02's August 11 special primary now turns on a 4 p.m. deadline at the U.S. Supreme Court. Justice Thomas refused to grant Alabama immediate relief last Wednesday and instead set today as the day the plaintiffs must explain why the court-drawn map should stay. A ruling could follow this week.

The 4 p.m. deadline — and what Justice Thomas already did

Last Wednesday, May 27, Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall filed emergency stay applications with the Supreme Court in Allen v. Singleton, Allen v. Caster, and Allen v. Milligan, asking the Court to revive the state's 2023 congressional map and to issue a ruling by 10 a.m. on June 1, 2026.

Justice Clarence Thomas, the Circuit Justice for the Eleventh Circuit, declined to grant Alabama immediate administrative relief. Instead, he ordered the plaintiffs to file their response to the stay application by 4 p.m. Eastern today. As of this brief, no ruling has issued and the court-drawn map — the same map under which Shomari Figures was elected in 2024 — remains in effect.

Bottom line: Alabama asked for a stay by 10 a.m. Monday. They did not get one. The plaintiffs respond by 4 p.m. Monday. After that, the Court can act on its own timetable.

Why the silence is significant

An administrative stay is the lightest form of relief the Supreme Court grants. Thomas's decision not to issue one was a choice, and on a fast-moving election-administration question, it tells the parties something. It does not predict the final ruling, but it signals that the Court was not prepared to assume Alabama was likely to win.

Alabama Director of Elections Jeff Elrod testified that voter rolls unlock between this Wednesday and June 2. If the Court ultimately lets the 2023 map stand, the state has to re-sort voters on a compressed timeline. If it lets the court-drawn map stand for 2026, election administrators continue with the configuration they have already been building toward.

What this means for the August 11 primary

If the Court grants the stay later this week: the 2023 Alabama-drawn map governs the August 11 special primary. AL-02 becomes a winnable Republican seat, the Mobile-anchored configuration that ran through the Wiregrass and the Black Belt to the Georgia line.

If the Court denies the stay or simply lets the deadline pass without acting: the court-drawn map governs August 11. AL-02 remains the seat Figures won in 2024. The path is harder, but the campaign continues in either configuration.

Either way, August 11 is happening. The question is which lines the ballot is drawn against.

The Republican field is set — and growing

Six Republicans have qualified for the AL-02 special primary: - Hampton Harris — Mobile real-estate broker, first to qualify, "Commitment, not convenience." - State Rep. Rhett Marques — Enterprise; Coffee County base shifts into AL-02 under the 2023 map. - David Matthews — Ozark native, resigned from USDA last week to enter. Launched May 24. - Christian Horn — entered during qualifying. - Joshua McKee — entered during qualifying. - James Richardson — entered during qualifying.

Whether all six stay in after the Court acts is the question to watch.

Figures — defending the map that drew him in

Figures was elected in 2024 under the court-drawn lines. He has aligned with the plaintiffs defending those lines. That is rational for his campaign and now also a vulnerability: he is fighting in federal court to preserve the configuration that elected him rather than running on the work he has done since.

The Tuskegee dialysis closure illustrates. Fresenius Kidney Care's only Macon County dialysis center was scheduled to close March 18; after Mayor Chris Lee's outreach and Figures' request, Fresenius agreed to delay until May 17. That delay has now expired. Nearly 50 patients affected. The long-term solution Figures promised "to continue to explore" has not materialized publicly. The Wilcox County dialysis center closed March 20 with no comparable intervention reported.

What to watch this week

- The plaintiffs' 4 p.m. response today. - Whether the Supreme Court rules this week or holds for fuller briefing. - Whether Alabama's voter-roll unlock window (Wednesday to June 2) drives the Court's timing. - How Figures and his allies frame the litigation if the Court lets the 2023 map stand.

Paid for by Strategic Resource Group, L.L.C., 556 Clay St, Montgomery, AL 36104. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.