Democrats Polled Their Own Congressman. He Lost.

Wall of Shame — Today: Coca-Cola United

Today on the Wall of Shame: the Coca-Cola Bottling Co. United (Birmingham) has put $2,000 into Rep. Shomari Figures' campaign account. Figures then voted no on no-tax-on-tips and no-tax-on-overtime for the beverage workers the bottler employs. The Wall of Shame exists for one reason — so that total stops growing. https://take2back.com/wall-of-shame.html

THE POLL THE DEMOCRATS DIDN'T WANT PRINTED

Washington Democrats paid for a poll in Alabama's Second District. Their own pollster asked the question. Their own congressman lost.

IMPACT Research — a Democratic firm — surveyed 400 likely voters in the new Second District from June 22 to 25. The result, first reported by National Journal's Hotline and carried Monday by Yellowhammer News: Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques 45, Congressman Shomari Figures 44.

That is a Democratic poll. In a Democratic internal. About a Democratic incumbent. And he is losing.

LET'S CONCEDE THE OBJECTIONS BEFORE HIS PRESS SHOP MAKES THEM

We will save his staff the trouble.

Yes — one point is a statistical tie, not a rout. Yes — it is an internal poll, and internals get released for a reason. Yes — the poll tested one Republican, and the Republican nomination is not settled: six Republicans are on the August 11 ballot, and the voters of this district — not a pollster in Washington and not this newsletter — will decide which one carries it. All of that is true.

Now that we have said it for him, here is the part he cannot say back.

THE TWO NUMBERS: 44 AND 31

Forty-four. That is the incumbent. A sitting United States congressman, in his own district, with his name on federal press releases and his face on local news, polled by his own party's firm — and he cannot reach 45 percent.

Thirty-one. That is the name identification of the Republican he was tested against. Sixty-nine percent of this district has never heard of the man who is beating him.

Read those two numbers together, because they only mean one thing. Shomari Figures is not losing to a person. He is losing to a blank space. Voters in this district know him, and given a Republican — any Republican, a name they cannot place — they take the blank space.

There is an old rule in this business: undecided voters break against the incumbent, because the incumbent is the one they have already had a chance to be for. A first-term member of Congress sitting at 44 in a friendly poll has a name recognition problem in reverse. They know him just fine. That is the problem.

AND WASHINGTON ALREADY KNOWS

You do not need to take our word for how much trouble this seat is in. Take theirs.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee put Figures on its "Frontline" list — the program the party runs for its most endangered incumbents. Their House campaign chair says the path back to a Democratic majority "hinges on holding seats like Shomari's."

Read that again. Their majority hinges on him. Which means every dollar, every consultant, every attack mailer the national Democratic Party can find is coming to the Wiregrass, to Montgomery, to Dothan — to buy this seat back.

They are not spending that money because he earned it here. They are spending it because they need the vote there.

TOMORROW, THE BOOKS OPEN

We have promised this read twice in print, and we will deliver it tomorrow.

Wednesday, July 15, is the federal filing deadline for second-quarter fundraising. Shomari Figures will post a big number. We are telling you now so that nobody is impressed by it later.

Do not watch the number. Watch the composition. Through his last report, the record at the Federal Election Commission showed $827,549 raised this cycle: $576,373 from political action committees against $237,171 from actual people.

That is $2.43 in Washington PAC money for every $1 from a human being. It is the most honest description of this congressman available, and it is written in his own filings.

Tomorrow he opens the books again. We will publish exactly what they show.

THE BOTTOM LINE

A Democratic poll says he loses. A Democratic committee says he is endangered. Democratic PACs are paying his bills.

Everything Washington knows about this seat, Washington has already told us. The only people who have not spoken yet are the ones who live here.

August 11. Then November 3.